A Greek, an Irish and a Portugeese man walks into a bar and each order a drink. Who pays the bill? A German!
Come the start of 2012, assuming the Mayans don't have their way and we don't make it that far, the 26, of 27, countries who signed up for the European fiscal will begin bashing out the treaty. The UK, having walked away from this, will no longer be directly affected by this treaty but will have a large influence and continue to be the EU's financial capital. All is well.
Sadly, the actual future may be less pleasant. The treaty has all the possibilities of being rejected by the market or by a minority of the EU's countries. Plus with the UK having walked away it is likely it's influence may be lessened and the treaty may be intact leading the Euro in a bad direction. This crisis is a race against time. Time that we don't really have.
Now that you have one more thing to worry about whilst lying awake at night, it makes sense to explore how we ended up in this situation.
The EU fiscal is a treaty that aims to manage the EU's countries' debts and their spending. It essentially let's the EU keep an eye in them and help prevent this crisis getting any worse, preventing any such further crisis and ultimately save the Euro!
The UK pulled out because David Cameron wanted safe guards in place to protect the single market and to make some of the financial decisions require a unanimous vote. When the EU did not meet the ransome of the changes for a vote the UK pulled out of the preceedings. This seemed largely in the favour of the British economy in the short term which seems to be on the slow path to recovery as we are not directly affected by the Euro's value and don't want to waste our money bailing out others with no gain for ourselves.
Alas, In the long term things look more serious. If the Euro were to collapse, as feared, then although Mr Cameron would be allowed to say "I told you so" our economy would also be badly affected due to the large amount of trading between us and the rest of the EU. Making it in our best interests to prevent to Euro's collapse.
If the Euro does recover, however, our problems are equally bad, we face being sidelined from the EU as they won't forget how Britain held it's vote to ransome at a crucial point, defending policies that many blame for our now dire financial situation. Also, with the Lib Dems and the Tourrie Eurosceptics at each others' throats the future of the UK's finance and role in the Eu seems stormy.
But, all is not lost! If our country attempts to ease relations with its fellow EU members, as it's already started doing, by being more lenient and assisting countries in need both possible outcomes may be avoided and we may see the EU and Britain's economy make a full recovery.
Only time will tell!
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